2009 Predictions

SAXO bank in Copenhagen (love the Danes) makes some outrageous (extreme) predictions every year, mostly I believe to show where things will trend. They are usually spot on (except for political). Here were 2008:

1) Ron Paul elected as President of the United States in 2008
I actually think this is a good prediction about change.... they just didn't guess how much change.

2) S&P500 falls 25% from its 2007 high to 1182
Well done guys... S&P shows a general economic picture and when our housing market dumps....we dump. S&P as of today was in the 800's.

3) EURSEK falls to 8.8000 (now 9.4000)
Sorry guys, don't track Swedish Kroner pricing...but the quote today was over 10:


4) USDSGD falls to 1.4000, but then rises to 1.6000 (now 1.6000)
Don't track singapore pricing...

5) EURHUF rises to 275
Don't know anything about this...


6) At least 3 of the largest 10 US home builders will go bankrupt
Well done guys - pretty easy guess in 2007 as there was massive over building, and I'm not sure if 3 have filed, but EVERYONE of them is seeking relief.


7) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer
Ok.... but everyone has fallen given global credit. They predicted this fall with over extension of production and capital.

8) Grain Prices to double - again!
This was pretty obvious - and it happened. With increases in world population and demand for biofuels... YUP.

9) World oil prices accelerate to $175
Well done guys - futures got to $150, spot at $134 (July 2008), and the year's average was $100. Now? Well we sit at $34. Its a good reason to think the oil countries may engage in some unrest.

10) UK growth turns negative
Duh..., the entire worlds growth turned negative.

NOW FOR 2009...
drum roll please. Read the Details here.

Iranian Revolution (given low crude prices)
Crude @ 25 USD (here come the big SUV's again!)
S&P500 in 500 (ouch) - that's 50% decline.
Italy will make good on threats to leave the ERM
AUDJPY to 40
EURUSD to 0.95 – and then to 1.30 (so travel early in the year!)
Chinese GDP growth to 0% (we buy less goods).
Pre-Ins First Out (something about overseas currency changes)
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index to drop 30% (to 150)
First Asian currency to be pegged to Chinese Yen (probably USD instability)